RKC Waalwijk 1-2 Heracles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 12 Jan 2024

RKC Waalwijk
1-2 HT 0-1
Heracles
📅12/01/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

RKC Waalwijk vs Heracles Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.92
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
39%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.62
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
3.29
6+ Goals
11%
11.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.6
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
34.0
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
14%
4.53
X/2
17%
7.67
X/X
10%
4.79
2/1
6%
23.85
2/2
13%
5.49
2/X
6%
13.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.0 — our 9% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
48%
-9.0pp
22%
Draw
26%
-4.7pp
39%
Away Win
26%
+13.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+1.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-1.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.8pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

RKC Waalwijk v Heracles — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RKC Waalwijk EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Heracles EU Bookmakers 29%
+2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -15%
1.70/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.52
+42% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
338 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 76%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
17.3 Crosses 17.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.6

RKC Waalwijk vs Heracles Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RKC Waalwijk
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Heracles
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.83 xG 1.95
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
294 Passes 404
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 31
12 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
11.05.2022 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 2-0 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
26.09.2021 Heracles Heracles 1-0 HT 0-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
30.07.2021 Heracles Heracles 4-1 HT 1-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HAZ
21.02.2021 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 3-0 HT 2-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
17.10.2020 Heracles Heracles 0-1 HT 0-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
08.03.2020 Heracles Heracles 4-2 HT 2-2 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL

RKC Waalwijk 1-2 Heracles — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RKC Waalwijk
1-2
AWAY Heracles
1.86 xG 1.35
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
396 Passes 318
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Box Touches 21
30 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH RKC Waalwijk vs Heracles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heracles squeezed past RKC Waalwijk 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 22% / 39% — and on the day Heracles made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, RKC Waalwijk had 55% of the ball to Heracles's 45%, shots finished 18-9, expected goals 1.86 to 1.35 — the balance of chances actually favoured RKC Waalwijk.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for RKC Waalwijk and 1.50 for Heracles.

What was the final score of RKC Waalwijk vs Heracles?

RKC Waalwijk 1-2 Heracles in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 12/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RKC Waalwijk vs Heracles?

Before kick-off our model rated a RKC Waalwijk win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split RKC Waalwijk 39%, draw 22%, Heracles 39%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (39/22/39) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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