Portimonense 1-0 Farense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 12 Jan 2024

📅12/01/2024 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.38
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
32%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.21
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
3.62
6+ Goals
9%
14.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.55
1/2
7%
30.5
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
17%
5.33
X/2
12%
5.73
X/X
11%
4.42
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
13%
3.93
2/X
9%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
38%
+3.5pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.7pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-1.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.0pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portimonense EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Farense EU Bookmakers 37%
+2% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.38/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.20
-14% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / -25%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
314 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
20.4 Crosses 23.3
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portimonense
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Farense
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.27 xG 0.43
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
301 Passes 200
72% Pass Accuracy 64%
20 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.04.2021 Farense Farense 1-1 HT 1-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR
05.01.2021 Portimonense Portimonense 2-0 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
04.01.2021 Portimonense Portimonense 2-0 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
30.09.2015 Farense Farense 1-2 HT 0-1 Portimonense Portimonense POR2
01.03.2015 Portimonense Portimonense 1-1 HT 1-0 Farense Farense POR2
21.09.2014 Farense Farense 1-0 HT 0-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portimonense
1-0
AWAY Farense
1.39 xG 0.59
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
287 Passes 346
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 8
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Portimonense vs Farense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portimonense nicked a narrow win over Farense 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Portimonense as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Portimonense had 46% of the ball to Farense's 54%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 1.39 to 0.59.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Portimonense had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Portimonense and 0.67 for Farense.

What was the final score of Portimonense vs Farense?

Portimonense 1-0 Farense in the Portugal - Premier League on 12/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portimonense vs Farense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Portimonense win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Portimonense 42%, draw 26%, Farense 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Portimonense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Portimonense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →