Crystal Palace 1-3 Chelsea — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 12 Feb 2024

Crystal Palace
1-3 HT 1-0
Chelsea
📅12/02/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Crystal Palace vs Chelsea Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
4.04
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
37%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.95
Over 2.5
53%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.76
No
42%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.48
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
25%
3.36
6+ Goals
12%
12.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.36 — our 25% vs market 24.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
6.88
1/2
7%
22.45
1/X
8%
14.95
X/1
13%
9.11
X/2
14%
4.0
X/X
10%
5.21
2/1
10%
34.0
2/2
17%
2.19
2/X
10%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
22%
+12.2pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.7pp
38%
Away Win
54%
-16.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.1pp
58%
BTTS Yes
53%
+5.3pp
42%
BTTS No
47%
-5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Crystal Palace v Chelsea — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crystal Palace EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Chelsea EU Bookmakers 58%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -8%
0.95/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.06
-24% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +8%
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
249 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 466 · 82%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.8
17.7 Crosses 19.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9

Crystal Palace vs Chelsea Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crystal Palace
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Chelsea
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.64 xG 1.40
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
284 Passes 539
79% Pass Accuracy 88%
17 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.12.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 2-1 HT 1-1 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
15.01.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 1-0 HT 0-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
01.10.2022 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 1-2 HT 1-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
17.04.2022 Chelsea Chelsea 2-0 HT 0-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace FAK
19.02.2022 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 0-1 HT 0-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
14.08.2021 Chelsea Chelsea 3-0 HT 2-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP

Crystal Palace 1-3 Chelsea — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crystal Palace
1-3
AWAY Chelsea
0.56 xG 1.40
23% Ball Possession 77%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 7
161 Passes 749
66% Pass Accuracy 90%
16 Box Touches 29
8 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Crystal Palace vs Chelsea
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea got the better of Crystal Palace 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 29% / 38% — and on the day Chelsea made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Crystal Palace had 23% of the ball to Chelsea's 77%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 0.56 to 1.40.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chelsea led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.83 for Chelsea.

What was the final score of Crystal Palace vs Chelsea?

Crystal Palace 1-3 Chelsea in the England - Premier League on 12/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crystal Palace vs Chelsea?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Crystal Palace 34%, draw 29%, Chelsea 38%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chelsea) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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