Kapaz 1-4 Sebail FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 12 Feb 2024

Kapaz
1-4 HT 1-1
Sebail FK
📅12/02/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Azerbaijan - Super League – 2023/2024

Kapaz vs Sebail FK Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.02
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
34%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.75
Over 2.5
47%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
3%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
22%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.9pp
23%
Draw
27%
-4.4pp
35%
Away Win
27%
+7.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
53%
-0.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
47%
+0.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.5pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Kapaz v Sebail FK — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kapaz EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Sebail FK EU Bookmakers 31%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -2%
1.24/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.61
+0% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -28%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
275 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 72%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 1.7

Kapaz vs Sebail FK Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kapaz
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sebail FK
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
25.11.2023 Sebail FK Sebail FK 0-0 HT 0-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
16.09.2023 Kapaz Kapaz 0-3 HT 0-2 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
01.04.2023 Kapaz Kapaz 1-0 HT 0-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
31.01.2023 Sebail FK Sebail FK 1-0 HT 0-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
29.10.2022 Kapaz Kapaz 3-0 HT 1-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
27.08.2022 Sebail FK Sebail FK 4-1 HT 0-1 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
POST-MATCH Kapaz vs Sebail FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sebail FK swept aside Kapaz 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Kapaz at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sebail FK led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Kapaz and 1.33 for Sebail FK.

What was the final score of Kapaz vs Sebail FK?

Kapaz 1-4 Sebail FK in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 12/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kapaz vs Sebail FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kapaz win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Kapaz 43%, draw 23%, Sebail FK 35%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kapaz) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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