Arouca 3-2 Porto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 12 Feb 2024

Arouca
3-2 HT 2-1
Porto
📅12/02/2024 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Arouca vs Porto Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
5.91
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
50%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.14
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
2.98
6+ Goals
9%
9.28
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.14 — our 29% vs market 18.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
10.9
1/2
6%
22.45
1/X
5%
18.45
X/1
9%
13.75
X/2
12%
3.57
X/X
9%
6.14
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
32%
1.72
2/X
9%
17.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
14%
+12.5pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.5pp
50%
Away Win
65%
-15.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.6pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arouca v Porto — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arouca EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto EU Bookmakers 69%
-5% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +10%
0.80/1.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.84/0.91
-56% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +36%
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
284 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 396 · 82%
12.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.0
14.6 Crosses 18.9
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.4

Arouca vs Porto Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arouca
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Porto
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.38 xG 2.40
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 16
1 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 6
264 Passes 437
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
11 Box Touches 38
12 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.09.2023 Porto Porto 1-1 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
08.05.2023 Arouca Arouca 0-1 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
11.01.2023 Porto Porto 4-0 HT 1-0 Arouca Arouca POK
29.12.2022 Porto Porto 5-1 HT 3-0 Arouca Arouca POR
28.12.2022 Porto Porto 5-1 HT 3-0 Arouca Arouca POR
06.02.2022 Arouca Arouca 0-2 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POR

Arouca 3-2 Porto — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arouca
3-2
AWAY Porto
1.83 xG 2.11
36% Ball Possession 64%
12 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
201 Passes 385
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
9 Box Touches 40
7 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Arouca vs Porto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arouca nicked a narrow win over Porto 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Porto at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Arouca had 36% of the ball to Porto's 64%, shots finished 12-20, expected goals 1.83 to 2.11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Arouca and 3.00 for Porto.

What was the final score of Arouca vs Porto?

Arouca 3-2 Porto in the Portugal - Premier League on 12/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arouca vs Porto?

Before kick-off our model rated an Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Arouca 27%, draw 23%, Porto 50%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Porto) ✗ BTTS No
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