Libertad 0-1 Uni. Catolica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 12 Mar 2024

📅12/03/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.5
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
43%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
8%
1/X
10%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
22%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
25%
+6.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.0pp
42%
Away Win
49%
-6.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.3pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Uni. Catolica EU Bookmakers 53%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +6%
1.18/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.09
+48% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +32%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
245 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 78%
16.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
15.9 Crosses 15.9
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Uni. Catolica
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.56 xG 1.05
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
192 Passes 406
69% Pass Accuracy 85%
12 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 29
4 Yellow Cards 2
07.11.2023 Uni. Catolica 0-0 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
27.05.2023 Libertad Libertad 2-2 HT 0-1 Uni. Catolica EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
0-1
AWAY Uni. Catolica
0.71 xG 1.04
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 11
234 Passes 404
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
10 Box Touches 37
22 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Uni. Catolica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uni. Catolica nicked a narrow win over Libertad 1-0 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Uni. Catolica as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Libertad had 40% of the ball to Uni. Catolica's 60%, shots finished 8-17, expected goals 0.71 to 1.04.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Libertad and 1.00 for Uni. Catolica.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Uni. Catolica?

Libertad 0-1 Uni. Catolica in the Ecuador - Premier on 12/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Uni. Catolica?

Before kick-off our model rated an Uni. Catolica win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Libertad 31%, draw 26%, Uni. Catolica 42%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Uni. Catolica), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Uni. Catolica) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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