Libertad 4-1 Sportivo Ameliano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 12 Mar 2024

📅12/03/2024 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.49
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
27%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
63%
-15.8pp
26%
Draw
21%
+5.1pp
27%
Away Win
16%
+10.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.6pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Sportivo Ameliano EU Bookmakers 19%
+2% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +1%
1.90/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.61
+2% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +8%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
392 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Sportivo Ameliano
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.10.2023 Libertad Libertad 3-0 HT 2-0 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano PAR
30.07.2023 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 0-2 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad PAR
10.06.2023 Libertad Libertad 1-1 HT 0-1 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano PAR
11.04.2023 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 2-5 HT 2-1 Libertad Libertad PAR
18.09.2022 Libertad Libertad 2-1 HT 1-1 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano PAR
17.07.2022 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 2-0 HT 2-0 Libertad Libertad PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
4-1
AWAY Sportivo Ameliano
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 8
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Sportivo Ameliano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad swept aside Sportivo Ameliano 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Libertad as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Libertad had 54% of the ball to Sportivo Ameliano's 46%, shots finished 18-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Libertad had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Libertad and 1.00 for Sportivo Ameliano.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Sportivo Ameliano?

Libertad 4-1 Sportivo Ameliano in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 12/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Sportivo Ameliano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Libertad 47%, draw 26%, Sportivo Ameliano 27%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Libertad) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Libertad) ✗ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →