San Diego 3-2 Toluca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CONCACAF Champions League, 12 Mar 2026

📅12/03/2026 · 🕒06:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
33%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.1
Over 2.5
44%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.56
No
44%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
10%
1/X
10%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
10%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
34%
+4.2pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.9pp
33%
Away Win
41%
-8.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
44%
+12.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
56%
-12.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.1pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Diego EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Toluca EU Bookmakers 45%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +148%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
307 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME San Diego
3-2
AWAY Toluca
1.32 xG 3.25
34% Ball Possession 66%
8 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 5
204 Passes 481
69% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Box Touches 35
6 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH San Diego vs Toluca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

San Diego nicked a narrow win over Toluca 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 29% / 33%) promised a tight game; San Diego found the edge the numbers couldn't. On goals, both teams to score (56%) landed while under 2.5 goals (56%) missed.

On the day, San Diego had 34% of the ball to Toluca's 66%, shots finished 8-20, expected goals 1.32 to 3.25 — on chances, Toluca could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of San Diego vs Toluca?

San Diego 3-2 Toluca in the CONCACAF Champions League on 12/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Diego vs Toluca?

Before kick-off our model rated a San Diego win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split San Diego 38%, draw 29%, Toluca 33%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (San Diego), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (San Diego) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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