Modena 1-3 Catanzaro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 12 Apr 2024

Modena
1-3 HT 1-2
Catanzaro
📅12/04/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2023/2024

Modena vs Catanzaro Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.91
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.0
6+ Goals
10%
18.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.91 — our 30% vs market 28.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.76
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
11%
13.4
X/1
19%
4.42
X/2
12%
7.37
X/X
10%
4.26
2/1
9%
27.0
2/2
9%
5.71
2/X
7%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-1.2pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.2pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.6pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Modena v Catanzaro — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Modena EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Catanzaro EU Bookmakers 29%
-3% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.31/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.54
-14% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +19%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
336 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 75%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
22.6 Crosses 11.9
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.2

Modena vs Catanzaro Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Modena
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Catanzaro
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.51 xG 0.86
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
259 Passes 469
73% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 12
8 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.11.2023 Catanzaro Catanzaro 1-2 HT 1-1 Modena Modena İTB
31.07.2022 Modena Modena 3-1 HT 2-0 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTK
25.02.2006 Catanzaro Catanzaro 1-0 HT 0-0 Modena Modena İTB
09.10.2005 Modena Modena 1-0 HT 1-0 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTB
13.03.2005 Modena Modena 2-0 HT 2-0 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTB
22.10.2004 Catanzaro Catanzaro 2-1 HT 1-0 Modena Modena İTB

Modena 1-3 Catanzaro — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Modena
1-3
AWAY Catanzaro
1.20 xG 1.47
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
348 Passes 464
85% Pass Accuracy 90%
18 Box Touches 11
22 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Modena vs Catanzaro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Catanzaro got the better of Modena 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Modena at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Modena had 45% of the ball to Catanzaro's 55%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.20 to 1.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Modena had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Modena and 0.83 for Catanzaro.

What was the final score of Modena vs Catanzaro?

Modena 1-3 Catanzaro in the Italy - Serie B on 12/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Modena vs Catanzaro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Modena win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Modena 45%, draw 28%, Catanzaro 27%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Modena) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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