Augsburg 2-0 Union Berlin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 12 Apr 2024

Augsburg
2-0 HT 0-0
Union Berlin
📅12/04/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Augsburg vs Union Berlin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.28
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.59
6+ Goals
10%
14.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 29% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.88
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
19%
4.65
X/2
9%
6.91
X/X
14%
4.58
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
12%
5.04
2/X
6%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
45%
-0.4pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.3pp
28%
Away Win
28%
+0.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+0.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-0.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.0pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Augsburg v Union Berlin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Augsburg EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -6%
1.46/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.23
-4% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / +1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
323 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 73%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
20.1 Crosses 20.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5

Augsburg vs Union Berlin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Augsburg
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Union Berlin
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.19 xG 1.36
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
237 Passes 381
70% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.11.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-1 HT 0-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
06.05.2023 Augsburg Augsburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
07.01.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-0 Augsburg Augsburg HAZ
09.11.2022 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-2 HT 2-2 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
05.02.2022 Augsburg Augsburg 2-0 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
11.09.2021 Union Berlin Union Berlin 0-0 HT 0-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1

Augsburg 2-0 Union Berlin — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Augsburg
2-0
AWAY Union Berlin
1.60 xG 1.60
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
334 Passes 379
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 39
19 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Augsburg vs Union Berlin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Augsburg got the better of Union Berlin 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Augsburg as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Augsburg had 47% of the ball to Union Berlin's 53%, shots finished 10-17, expected goals 1.60 to 1.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Augsburg had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Augsburg and 0.67 for Union Berlin.

What was the final score of Augsburg vs Union Berlin?

Augsburg 2-0 Union Berlin in the Germany - Bundesliga on 12/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Augsburg vs Union Berlin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Augsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Augsburg 44%, draw 27%, Union Berlin 28%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Augsburg), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Augsburg) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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