MSV Duisburg 1-1 Waldhof Mannheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 12 Apr 2024

📅12/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
36%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.07
Over 2.5
47%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.04
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
20%
3.1
6+ Goals
10%
9.99
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.04 — our 29% vs market 19.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.01
1/2
6%
24.85
1/X
7%
12.9
X/1
14%
6.17
X/2
18%
5.24
X/X
17%
5.12
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
12%
3.2
2/X
5%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+0.9pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.9pp
36%
Away Win
41%
-4.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.9pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MSV Duisburg EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Waldhof Mannheim EU Bookmakers 45%
-10% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -18%
1.32/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.11/1.43
-19% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -16%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
308 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 78%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
15.4 Crosses 12.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MSV Duisburg
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Waldhof Mannheim
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.11.2023 Waldhof Mannheim Waldhof Mannheim 0-0 HT 0-0 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL3
23.01.2023 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 1-3 HT 1-1 Waldhof Mannheim Waldhof Mannheim AL3
02.05.2022 Waldhof Mannheim Waldhof Mannheim 3-1 HT 3-0 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL3
26.11.2021 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 1-3 HT 1-2 Waldhof Mannheim Waldhof Mannheim AL3
10.04.2021 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 1-1 HT 1-1 Waldhof Mannheim Waldhof Mannheim AL3
24.11.2020 Waldhof Mannheim Waldhof Mannheim 2-2 HT 1-1 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MSV Duisburg
1-1
AWAY Waldhof Mannheim
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH MSV Duisburg vs Waldhof Mannheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MSV Duisburg and Waldhof Mannheim shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 29% / 36% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, MSV Duisburg had 60% of the ball to Waldhof Mannheim's 40%, shots finished 12-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Waldhof Mannheim led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for MSV Duisburg and 2.00 for Waldhof Mannheim.

What was the final score of MSV Duisburg vs Waldhof Mannheim?

MSV Duisburg 1-1 Waldhof Mannheim in the Germany - 3rd Division on 12/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MSV Duisburg vs Waldhof Mannheim?

Before kick-off our model rated an Waldhof Mannheim win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split MSV Duisburg 35%, draw 29%, Waldhof Mannheim 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Waldhof Mannheim) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Waldhof Mannheim) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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