Miami FC 2-5 Tampa Bay Rowdies — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 12 Apr 2024

Miami FC
2-5 HT 0-3
Tampa Bay Rowdies
📅12/04/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
USL Championship – 2024

Miami FC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.29
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
40%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.7
No
53%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.49
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.42
6+ Goals
9%
12.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.49 — our 31% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
15%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
27%
+6.6pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.8pp
40%
Away Win
48%
-7.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.9pp
53%
BTTS No
45%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Miami FC v Tampa Bay Rowdies — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Miami FC EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 51%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +9%
1.40/1.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.27
+42% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +28%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
308 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 398 · 81%
16.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
14.2 Crosses 15.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2

Miami FC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Miami FC
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.89 xG 1.63
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
409 Passes 360
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.08.2023 Miami FC Miami FC 0-2 HT 0-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
09.04.2023 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-0 HT 1-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
23.10.2022 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-1 HT 0-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
12.06.2022 Miami FC Miami FC 1-2 HT 0-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
10.04.2022 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 0-1 HT 0-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
21.10.2021 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-0 HT 1-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP

Miami FC 2-5 Tampa Bay Rowdies — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Miami FC
2-5
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.41 xG 3.54
46% Ball Possession 54%
6 Total Shots 24
5 Shots on Target 11
3 Corners 7
257 Passes 311
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
7 Box Touches 34
13 Crosses 26
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Miami FC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tampa Bay Rowdies cruised past Miami FC 5-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (34% / 26% / 40%) promised a tight game; Tampa Bay Rowdies found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Miami FC had 46% of the ball to Tampa Bay Rowdies's 54%, shots finished 6-24, expected goals 1.41 to 3.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tampa Bay Rowdies led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Miami FC and 2.00 for Tampa Bay Rowdies.

What was the final score of Miami FC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

Miami FC 2-5 Tampa Bay Rowdies in the USL Championship on 12/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Miami FC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tampa Bay Rowdies win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Miami FC 34%, draw 26%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 40%. The final score 2-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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