Progreso 1-1 Plaza Colonia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
40%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.62
Over 2.5
44%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.95
No
54%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
18%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
33%
-0.3pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.9pp
40%
Away Win
38%
+1.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
58%
-2.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
42%
+2.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.3pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progreso EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Plaza Colonia EU Bookmakers 43%
+6% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +16%
1.34/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/0.90
+14% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +17%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
338 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progreso
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Plaza Colonia
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
31.10.2021 Plaza Colonia Plaza Colonia 2-1 HT 1-1 Progreso Progreso URU
05.07.2021 Progreso Progreso 1-2 HT 0-2 Plaza Colonia Plaza Colonia URU
21.01.2021 Plaza Colonia Plaza Colonia 0-1 HT 0-1 Progreso Progreso URU
23.02.2020 Progreso Progreso 2-2 HT 1-1 Plaza Colonia Plaza Colonia URU
24.10.2019 Plaza Colonia Plaza Colonia 0-1 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Progreso
1-1
AWAY Plaza Colonia
54% Ball Possession 46%
22 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Progreso vs Plaza Colonia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Progreso and Plaza Colonia shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (33% / 27% / 40%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Progreso had 54% of the ball to Plaza Colonia's 46%, shots finished 22-14.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Progreso and 1.20 for Plaza Colonia.

What was the final score of Progreso vs Plaza Colonia?

Progreso 1-1 Plaza Colonia in the Uruguay - Premier League on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progreso vs Plaza Colonia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Plaza Colonia win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Progreso 33%, draw 27%, Plaza Colonia 40%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Plaza Colonia), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Plaza Colonia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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