Manchester United 0-1 Arsenal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 12 May 2024

Manchester United
0-1 HT 0-1
Arsenal
📅12/05/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Manchester United vs Arsenal Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
6.35
Draw
21%
4.95
Away
60%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.63
Over 2.5
51%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.73
No
55%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
6.33
2-3 Goals
43%
2.11
4-5 Goals
22%
2.53
6+ Goals
10%
5.41
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 6.33 — our 25% vs market 11.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
13.0
1/2
8%
20.0
1/X
7%
20.8
X/1
9%
18.8
X/2
21%
3.66
X/X
5%
8.79
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
31%
1.5
2/X
9%
21.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
13%
+6.7pp
21%
Draw
17%
+3.8pp
60%
Away Win
70%
-10.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
34%
+14.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
66%
-14.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
54%
-9.1pp
55%
BTTS No
46%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Manchester United v Arsenal — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manchester United EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal EU Bookmakers 75%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.00/2.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/0.76
+13% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +30%
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
282 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 492 · 85%
14.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 35.8
10.3 Crosses 16.5
3.3 Yellow Cards 1.2

Manchester United vs Arsenal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manchester United
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Arsenal
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.21 xG 1.97
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
327 Passes 424
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 35
8 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.09.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 3-1 HT 1-1 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
23.07.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 0-2 HT 0-2 Manchester United Manchester United HAZ
22.01.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 3-2 HT 1-1 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
04.09.2022 Manchester United Manchester United 3-1 HT 1-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
23.04.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 3-1 HT 2-1 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
02.12.2021 Manchester United Manchester United 3-2 HT 1-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP

Manchester United 0-1 Arsenal — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manchester United
0-1
AWAY Arsenal
0.51 xG 1.52
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
442 Passes 359
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
26 Box Touches 30
16 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Manchester United vs Arsenal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal nicked a narrow win over Manchester United 1-0 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Manchester United had 54% of the ball to Arsenal's 46%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 0.51 to 1.52.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Manchester United and 2.00 for Arsenal.

What was the final score of Manchester United vs Arsenal?

Manchester United 0-1 Arsenal in the England - Premier League on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manchester United vs Arsenal?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Manchester United 19%, draw 21%, Arsenal 60%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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