St. Pauli 3-1 Osnabrück — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.25
Draw
22%
5.71
Away
19%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.63
Over 2.5
54%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.29
2-3 Goals
41%
2.1
4-5 Goals
25%
2.53
6+ Goals
13%
5.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.36
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
27.0
X/1
16%
3.51
X/2
7%
25.5
X/X
8%
9.99
2/1
6%
21.85
2/2
6%
18.45
2/X
6%
25.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
76%
-16.8pp
22%
Draw
15%
+7.2pp
19%
Away Win
10%
+9.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
34%
+12.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
66%
-12.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.8pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Osnabrück EU Bookmakers 12%
-3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +5%
1.66/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.37
-12% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +1%
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
428 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 76%
29.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
21.8 Crosses 15.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pauli
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Osnabrück
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.78 xG 1.45
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
321 Passes 297
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
29 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 3
09.12.2023 Osnabrück Osnabrück 1-1 HT 0-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
21.03.2021 Osnabrück Osnabrück 1-2 HT 0-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
27.11.2020 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-1 HT 0-0 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL2
01.03.2020 St. Pauli St. Pauli 3-1 HT 2-0 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL2
22.09.2019 Osnabrück Osnabrück 1-1 HT 1-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
30.01.2009 Osnabrück Osnabrück 2-2 HT 1-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Pauli
3-1
AWAY Osnabrück
2.88 xG 1.04
64% Ball Possession 36%
19 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
527 Passes 262
91% Pass Accuracy 79%
38 Box Touches 9
23 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH St. Pauli vs Osnabrück
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Pauli saw off Osnabrück 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had St. Pauli as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, St. Pauli had 64% of the ball to Osnabrück's 36%, shots finished 19-4, expected goals 2.88 to 1.04.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Pauli had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for St. Pauli and 1.17 for Osnabrück.

What was the final score of St. Pauli vs Osnabrück?

St. Pauli 3-1 Osnabrück in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Pauli vs Osnabrück?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Pauli win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split St. Pauli 59%, draw 22%, Osnabrück 19%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Pauli), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (St. Pauli) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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