El Nacional 1-2 Independiente Del Valle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.47
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
34%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
2.07
Over 2.5
43%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.53
No
52%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
14%
X/X
18%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
37%
-3.0pp
32%
Draw
30%
+2.4pp
34%
Away Win
34%
+0.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
44%
+12.7pp
43%
Over 2.5
56%
-12.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
61%
-12.7pp
52%
BTTS No
39%
+12.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Nacional EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 37%
+15% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +3%
1.67/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.17
+44% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -26%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
243 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 80%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
20.9 Crosses 14.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Nacional
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
2.10 xG 1.64
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
178 Passes 301
71% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
02.12.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 2-1 HT 0-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
17.06.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 3-4 HT 1-2 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
07.10.2022 El Nacional El Nacional 0-2 HT 0-2 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKVK
06.12.2020 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-0 HT 2-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
16.08.2020 El Nacional El Nacional 2-4 HT 1-3 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
26.10.2019 El Nacional El Nacional 4-2 HT 2-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Nacional
1-2
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
1.71 xG 2.05
32% Ball Possession 68%
9 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
135 Passes 334
70% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 17
5 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
FAQ El Nacional vs Independiente Del Valle
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Independiente Del Valle edged past El Nacional 2-1 away from home in the Ecuador - Premier on 12 May 2024. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 43% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, El Nacional had 32% of the ball to Independiente Del Valle's 68%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 1.71 to 2.05.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours are even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for El Nacional and 2.33 for Independiente Del Valle.

What was the final score of El Nacional vs Independiente Del Valle?

El Nacional 1-2 Independiente Del Valle in the Ecuador - Premier on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Nacional vs Independiente Del Valle?

Before kick-off our model rated a El Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split El Nacional 34%, draw 32%, Independiente Del Valle 34%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (34/32/34) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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