Sarpsborg 08 4-1 Rosenborg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 12 Jul 2024

📅12/07/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.51
Over 2.5
61%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.43
No
44%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.51
2-3 Goals
31%
2.01
4-5 Goals
28%
2.65
6+ Goals
19%
6.39
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.02
1/2
8%
25.5
1/X
5%
13.1
X/1
11%
5.38
X/2
11%
6.33
X/X
7%
6.11
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
22.3
2/2
17%
3.77
2/X
9%
13.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 11% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+1.2pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.4pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+1.2pp
39%
Under 2.5
36%
+2.5pp
61%
Over 2.5
64%
-2.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
66%
-10.0pp
44%
BTTS No
34%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sarpsborg 08 EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Rosenborg EU Bookmakers 38%
-11% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.18/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.11
-31% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
342 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 78%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
21.9 Crosses 19.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sarpsborg 08
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Rosenborg
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.90 xG 1.22
52% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
377 Passes 350
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 28
19 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
08.10.2023 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 5-2 HT 1-0 Rosenborg Rosenborg NOR
25.06.2023 Rosenborg Rosenborg 0-3 HT 0-3 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
13.11.2022 Rosenborg Rosenborg 2-3 HT 1-2 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
18.04.2022 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 1-1 HT 1-0 Rosenborg Rosenborg NOR
19.09.2021 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 1-3 HT 0-2 Rosenborg Rosenborg NOR
20.06.2021 Rosenborg Rosenborg 0-1 HT 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sarpsborg 08
4-1
AWAY Rosenborg
2.65 xG 3.11
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 24
5 Shots on Target 9
0 Corners 11
290 Passes 410
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 46
5 Crosses 34
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sarpsborg 08 vs Rosenborg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sarpsborg 08 cruised past Rosenborg 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sarpsborg 08 as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Sarpsborg 08 had 41% of the ball to Rosenborg's 59%, shots finished 9-24, expected goals 2.65 to 3.11 — the balance of chances actually favoured Rosenborg.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sarpsborg 08 had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Sarpsborg 08 and 1.33 for Rosenborg.

What was the final score of Sarpsborg 08 vs Rosenborg?

Sarpsborg 08 4-1 Rosenborg in the Norway - Eliteserien on 12/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sarpsborg 08 vs Rosenborg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sarpsborg 08 win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Sarpsborg 08 43%, draw 21%, Rosenborg 36%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sarpsborg 08), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sarpsborg 08) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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