Avellino 2-1 Monza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 12 Sep 2025

📅12/09/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.32
Draw
25%
3.04
Away
50%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.62
Over 2.5
45%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.5
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
4.32
6+ Goals
9%
22.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.78
1/2
6%
29.0
1/X
9%
13.9
X/1
7%
7.23
X/2
19%
4.64
X/X
10%
3.88
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
24%
2.9
2/X
6%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
27%
-1.3pp
25%
Draw
30%
-4.5pp
50%
Away Win
44%
+5.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
58%
-2.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
42%
+2.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.6pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avellino EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Monza EU Bookmakers 48%
+0% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -5%
1.02/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/0.91
+3% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
302 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
Crosses 18.7
Yellow Cards 2.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avellino
2-1
AWAY Monza
1.45 xG 0.91
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 3
316 Passes 431
83% Pass Accuracy 87%
14 Box Touches 26
8 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Avellino vs Monza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avellino edged past Monza 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Monza at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Avellino had 43% of the ball to Monza's 57%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.45 to 0.91.

What was the final score of Avellino vs Monza?

Avellino 2-1 Monza in the Italy - Serie B on 12/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avellino vs Monza?

Before kick-off our model rated an Monza win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Avellino 25%, draw 25%, Monza 50%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Monza) ✗ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →