Lugazi Municipal 1-1 Mbarara City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 12 Dec 2024

📅12/12/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.18
Draw
28%
2.88
Away
33%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.52
Over 2.5
42%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.29
No
63%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-3.1pp
27%
Draw
32%
-4.1pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+7.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
62%
-3.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+3.6pp
37%
BTTS Yes
40%
-2.5pp
63%
BTTS No
60%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugazi Municipal EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Mbarara City EU Bookmakers 29%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -25% / -25%
1.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.53/1.46
-8% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / -30%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
328 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugazi Municipal
1-1
AWAY Mbarara City
66% Ball Possession 34%
14 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lugazi Municipal vs Mbarara City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugazi Municipal and Mbarara City shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 27% / 33% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (63%) missed.

On the day, Lugazi Municipal had 66% of the ball to Mbarara City's 34%, shots finished 14-7.

What was the final score of Lugazi Municipal vs Mbarara City?

Lugazi Municipal 1-1 Mbarara City in the Uganda - Premier League on 12/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugazi Municipal vs Mbarara City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugazi Municipal win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Lugazi Municipal 39%, draw 27%, Mbarara City 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Lugazi Municipal), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lugazi Municipal) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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