Peterborough United 3-1 Stevenage — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 13 Mar 2024

Peterborough United
3-1 HT 1-0
Stevenage
📅13/03/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Peterborough United vs Stevenage Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.89
Draw
31%
3.45
Away
25%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.44
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.46
6+ Goals
11%
13.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.44 — our 27% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.62
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
15%
4.36
X/2
12%
7.73
X/X
16%
4.57
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
7%
5.84
2/X
7%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-4.8pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.9pp
25%
Away Win
25%
-0.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.7pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Peterborough United v Stevenage — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Peterborough United EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Stevenage EU Bookmakers 29%
+3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -8%
1.85/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.11
+17% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
354 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 71%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
21.1 Crosses 19.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.0

Peterborough United vs Stevenage Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Peterborough United
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Stevenage
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.91 xG 1.25
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
375 Passes 150
79% Pass Accuracy 59%
33 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.11.2023 Stevenage Stevenage 2-2 HT 2-0 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1
30.08.2022 Peterborough United Peterborough United 1-2 HT 1-1 Stevenage Stevenage İNTK
23.08.2022 Stevenage Stevenage 1-0 HT 0-0 Peterborough United Peterborough United İNLK
19.11.2019 Peterborough United Peterborough United 2-0 HT 1-0 Stevenage Stevenage FAK
09.11.2019 Stevenage Stevenage 1-1 HT 0-0 Peterborough United Peterborough United FAK
16.07.2019 Stevenage Stevenage 1-1 HT 1-0 Peterborough United Peterborough United HAZ

Peterborough United 3-1 Stevenage — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Peterborough United
3-1
AWAY Stevenage
1.32 xG 0.87
64% Ball Possession 36%
6 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 6
429 Passes 189
82% Pass Accuracy 68%
19 Box Touches 30
9 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Peterborough United vs Stevenage
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Peterborough United saw off Stevenage 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Peterborough United as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Peterborough United had 64% of the ball to Stevenage's 36%, shots finished 6-11, expected goals 1.32 to 0.87.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stevenage led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Peterborough United and 1.17 for Stevenage.

What was the final score of Peterborough United vs Stevenage?

Peterborough United 3-1 Stevenage in the England - 1st Division on 13/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Peterborough United vs Stevenage?

Before kick-off our model rated a Peterborough United win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Peterborough United 44%, draw 30%, Stevenage 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Peterborough United) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Peterborough United) ✗ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →