Bournemouth 4-3 Luton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 13 Mar 2024

📅13/03/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.53
Draw
26%
4.19
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.63
Over 2.5
59%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.5
No
41%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
6.25
2-3 Goals
38%
2.1
4-5 Goals
28%
2.54
6+ Goals
12%
5.48
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.86
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.65
X/1
15%
4.09
X/2
9%
11.6
X/X
13%
7.27
2/1
9%
18.85
2/2
7%
7.52
2/X
6%
15.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
61%
-10.9pp
27%
Draw
20%
+6.2pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+4.7pp
41%
Under 2.5
34%
+7.0pp
59%
Over 2.5
66%
-7.0pp
59%
BTTS Yes
62%
-3.4pp
41%
BTTS No
38%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bournemouth EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Luton Town EU Bookmakers 22%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
2.06/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/2.26
-32% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +28%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
385 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 77%
42.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.2
33.5 Crosses 28.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bournemouth
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Luton Town
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.87 xG 0.95
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
400 Passes 202
80% Pass Accuracy 67%
22 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
16.12.2023 Bournemouth Bournemouth 1-1 HT 0-1 Luton Town Luton Town İNP
15.01.2022 Luton Town Luton Town 3-2 HT 2-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNCL
25.09.2021 Bournemouth Bournemouth 2-1 HT 2-0 Luton Town Luton Town İNCL
16.01.2021 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0-1 HT 0-0 Luton Town Luton Town İNCL
19.12.2020 Luton Town Luton Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNCL
04.01.2020 Bournemouth Bournemouth 4-0 HT 1-0 Luton Town Luton Town FAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bournemouth
4-3
AWAY Luton Town
2.35 xG 2.06
59% Ball Possession 41%
24 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 3
348 Passes 210
80% Pass Accuracy 68%
41 Box Touches 15
32 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bournemouth vs Luton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bournemouth nicked a narrow win over Luton Town 4-3. It was 0-3 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bournemouth as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Bournemouth had 59% of the ball to Luton Town's 41%, shots finished 24-8, expected goals 2.35 to 2.06.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Bournemouth and 1.00 for Luton Town.

What was the final score of Bournemouth vs Luton Town?

Bournemouth 4-3 Luton Town in the England - Premier League on 13/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bournemouth vs Luton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bournemouth win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Bournemouth 50%, draw 27%, Luton Town 24%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bournemouth), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bournemouth) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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