Matonense 0-3 Gremio Prudente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Paulista A3, 13 Mar 2024

📅13/03/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.9
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
52%
Over
48%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2-3
40%
4-5
19%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
15%
2/1
10%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
46%
Home Win
49%
-3.4pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.8pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matonense The Market 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio Prudente The Market 27%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
309 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Matonense vs Gremio Prudente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gremio Prudente ran out comfortable winners over Matonense 3-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Matonense at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

What was the final score of Matonense vs Gremio Prudente?

Matonense 0-3 Gremio Prudente in the Brazil - Paulista A3 on 13/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matonense vs Gremio Prudente?

Before kick-off our model rated a Matonense win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Matonense 46%, draw 26%, Gremio Prudente 29%. The final score 0-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Matonense) ✗ Under 2.5
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