PSG 3-1 Nice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 13 Mar 2024

PSG
3-1 HT 2-1
Nice
📅13/03/2024 · 🕒23:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
France - Cup – 2023/2024

PSG vs Nice Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.49
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
25%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.29
Over 2.5
57%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.7
No
45%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.72
2-3 Goals
40%
1.92
4-5 Goals
25%
2.84
6+ Goals
12%
7.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.84
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.65
X/1
12%
3.81
X/2
8%
12.15
X/X
9%
6.62
2/1
7%
20.4
2/2
12%
8.83
2/X EV+ ✗
9%
17.1
Value flag · 2/X at 17.1 — our 9% vs market 3.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
63%
-12.2pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.6pp
25%
Away Win
16%
+8.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
40%
+3.6pp
57%
Over 2.5
60%
-3.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.1pp
45%
BTTS No
45%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PSG v Nice — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSG EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Nice EU Bookmakers 20%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +39% / +39%
2.07/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.35/0.36
+46% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -68% / +150%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
455 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 76%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.0
13.5 Crosses 4.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 5.0

PSG vs Nice Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSG
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Nice
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.97 xG 0.94
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
634 Passes 354
91% Pass Accuracy 84%
26 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
15.09.2023 PSG PSG 2-3 HT 1-1 Nice Nice FR1
08.04.2023 Nice Nice 0-2 HT 0-1 PSG PSG FR1
01.10.2022 PSG PSG 2-1 HT 1-0 Nice Nice FR1
05.03.2022 Nice Nice 1-0 HT 0-0 PSG PSG FR1
31.01.2022 PSG PSG 0-0 HT 0-0 Nice Nice FRK
01.12.2021 PSG PSG 0-0 HT 0-0 Nice Nice FR1

PSG 3-1 Nice — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSG
3-1
AWAY Nice
2.43 xG 1.65
64% Ball Possession 36%
18 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
662 Passes 331
90% Pass Accuracy 85%
49 Box Touches 29
14 Crosses 22
POST-MATCH PSG vs Nice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSG saw off Nice 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had PSG as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, PSG had 64% of the ball to Nice's 36%, shots finished 18-15, expected goals 2.43 to 1.65.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for PSG and 0.83 for Nice.

What was the final score of PSG vs Nice?

PSG 3-1 Nice in the France - Cup on 13/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSG vs Nice?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split PSG 51%, draw 24%, Nice 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSG), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSG) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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