Gefle 4-5 IK Sirius — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 13 Mar 2024

📅13/03/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.47
Draw
24%
2.83
Away
35%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
Over 2.5
46%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
No
60%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
48%
4-5 Goals
13%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
7%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS No — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
37%
+4.2pp
24%
Draw
32%
-7.6pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gefle EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY IK Sirius EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
374 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Gefle vs IK Sirius
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

IK Sirius nicked a narrow win over Gefle 5-4 away from home. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Gefle at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Gefle vs IK Sirius?

Gefle 4-5 IK Sirius in the Friendlies on 13/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gefle vs IK Sirius?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gefle win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Gefle 41%, draw 24%, IK Sirius 34%. The final score 4-5 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gefle) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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