Cherno More Varna 3-1 Levski Sofia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒20:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.18
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
36%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.52
Over 2.5
40%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.06
No
55%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
9%
X/2
14%
X/X
20%
2/1
9%
2/2
19%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
42%
-7.1pp
29%
Draw
30%
-0.8pp
36%
Away Win
28%
+7.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.7pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.2pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cherno More Varna EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Levski Sofia EU Bookmakers 32%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
0.50/0.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
-52% / +120% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
333 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.5 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cherno More Varna
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Levski Sofia
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
22.10.2023 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 1-0 HT 0-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
26.05.2023 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 2-1 HT 1-1 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cherno More Varna
3-1
AWAY Levski Sofia
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cherno More Varna beat Levski Sofia 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 29% / 36% — and on the day Cherno More Varna made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cherno More Varna had 44% of the ball to Levski Sofia's 56%, shots finished 10-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Levski Sofia led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Cherno More Varna and 1.50 for Levski Sofia.

What was the final score of Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia?

Cherno More Varna 3-1 Levski Sofia in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Levski Sofia win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Cherno More Varna 35%, draw 29%, Levski Sofia 36%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Levski Sofia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
13 Apr 2024
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