Fredrikstad 2-2 Sarpsborg 08 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 13 Apr 2024

Fredrikstad
2-2 HT 0-1
Sarpsborg 08
📅13/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Norway - Eliteserien – 2024

Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
31%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
1.8
Over 2.5
58%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.75
No
40%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
3.16
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
26%
3.72
6+ Goals
12%
15.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.34
1/2
5%
31.5
1/X
10%
13.4
X/1
13%
5.02
X/2
10%
5.94
X/X
9%
4.53
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
27.5
2/2
17%
4.23
2/X
6%
13.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.5 — our 8% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
41%
+2.8pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.9pp
31%
Away Win
32%
-1.0pp
42%
Under 2.5
52%
-10.0pp
58%
Over 2.5
48%
+10.0pp
60%
BTTS Yes
53%
+7.2pp
40%
BTTS No
47%
-7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fredrikstad v Sarpsborg 08 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fredrikstad EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Sarpsborg 08 EU Bookmakers 36%
+2% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +19%
1.73/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.39
+19% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
295 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
– Crosses 19.7
– Yellow Cards 1.6

Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fredrikstad
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Sarpsborg 08
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 6
The Meetings
22.05.2019 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 0-2 HT 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOK
01.03.2019 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 3-0 HT 2-0 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad HAZ
05.05.2016 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 1-3 HT 1-1 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOK
26.09.2011 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 1-4 HT 0-2 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad NOR
13.06.2011 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 1-1 HT 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
15.08.2010 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 1-1 HT 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR1

Fredrikstad 2-2 Sarpsborg 08 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fredrikstad
2-2
AWAY Sarpsborg 08
2.77 xG 0.86
54% Ball Possession 46%
19 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
305 Passes 258
73% Pass Accuracy 69%
36 Box Touches 7
31 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Fredrikstad at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Fredrikstad had 54% of the ball to Sarpsborg 08's 46%, shots finished 19-5, expected goals 2.77 to 0.86.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sarpsborg 08 led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Fredrikstad and 1.83 for Sarpsborg 08.

What was the final score of Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08?

Fredrikstad 2-2 Sarpsborg 08 in the Norway - Eliteserien on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fredrikstad win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Fredrikstad 44%, draw 25%, Sarpsborg 08 31%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Fredrikstad) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fredrikstad) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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