Progreso 1-0 Boston River — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.46
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.67
Over 2.5
47%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
+0.1pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.6pp
36%
Away Win
35%
+1.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.3pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progreso EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Boston River EU Bookmakers 38%
+6% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +5%
1.68/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.07
+44% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +11%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
297 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progreso
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Boston River
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.11.2021 Boston River Boston River 0-0 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
16.07.2021 Progreso Progreso 1-0 HT 0-0 Boston River Boston River URU
24.02.2021 Boston River Boston River 2-3 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU
30.08.2020 Progreso Progreso 1-2 HT 1-1 Boston River Boston River URU
16.10.2019 Boston River Boston River 1-1 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
24.08.2019 Boston River Boston River 1-1 HT 0-1 Progreso Progreso URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Progreso
1-0
AWAY Boston River
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 8
POST-MATCH Progreso vs Boston River
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Progreso squeezed past Boston River 1-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Progreso found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Progreso had 44% of the ball to Boston River's 56%, shots finished 10-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Progreso had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Progreso and 1.00 for Boston River.

What was the final score of Progreso vs Boston River?

Progreso 1-0 Boston River in the Uruguay - Premier League on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progreso vs Boston River?

Before kick-off our model rated a Progreso win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Progreso 37%, draw 27%, Boston River 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Progreso), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Progreso) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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