Aston Villa 3-3 Liverpool — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 13 May 2024

Aston Villa
3-3 HT 1-2
Liverpool
📅13/05/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Aston Villa vs Liverpool Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.32
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
44%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.96
Over 2.5
58%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.39
No
47%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
6.89
2-3 Goals
37%
2.18
4-5 Goals
28%
2.47
6+ Goals
13%
4.92
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
5.22
1/2
8%
18.55
1/X
9%
14.25
X/1
9%
8.66
X/2
11%
4.58
X/X
7%
7.14
2/1
5%
32.0
2/2
25%
2.22
2/X
4%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
26%
+8.8pp
21%
Draw
21%
-0.1pp
44%
Away Win
53%
-8.8pp
42%
Under 2.5
30%
+12.4pp
58%
Over 2.5
70%
-12.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
68%
-14.5pp
47%
BTTS No
32%
+14.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aston Villa v Liverpool — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool EU Bookmakers 57%
-3% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +14%
1.01/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.93/1.21
-11% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -11%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
425 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 79%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 36.3
18.1 Crosses 20.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.7

Aston Villa vs Liverpool Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aston Villa
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Liverpool
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.96 xG 2.04
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
262 Passes 476
74% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 45
12 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.09.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 3-0 HT 2-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
20.05.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 1-1 HT 0-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
26.12.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-3 HT 0-2 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
10.05.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-2 HT 1-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
11.12.2021 Liverpool Liverpool 1-0 HT 0-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
10.04.2021 Liverpool Liverpool 2-1 HT 0-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP

Aston Villa 3-3 Liverpool — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aston Villa
3-3
AWAY Liverpool
3.17 xG 1.75
41% Ball Possession 59%
19 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
337 Passes 510
85% Pass Accuracy 88%
40 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Aston Villa vs Liverpool
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa and Liverpool shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Liverpool at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Aston Villa had 41% of the ball to Liverpool's 59%, shots finished 19-14, expected goals 3.17 to 1.75.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Aston Villa and 2.00 for Liverpool.

What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Liverpool?

Aston Villa 3-3 Liverpool in the England - Premier League on 13/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs Liverpool?

Before kick-off our model rated an Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 35%, draw 21%, Liverpool 44%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Liverpool) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Liverpool) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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