Longford Town 2-1 Treaty United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 13 May 2024

📅13/05/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
41%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.86
Over 2.5
37%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.7
No
60%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.29
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.58
6+ Goals
8%
14.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.29 — our 33% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
18%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
-0.4pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.6pp
41%
Away Win
38%
+3.0pp
63%
Under 2.5
50%
+12.7pp
37%
Over 2.5
50%
-12.7pp
40%
BTTS Yes
55%
-14.8pp
60%
BTTS No
45%
+14.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Longford Town EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Treaty United EU Bookmakers 42%
-16% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.13/1.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/0.79
-12% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +74%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
301 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 375 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Longford Town
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Treaty United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
30.09.2023 Longford Town Longford Town 2-3 HT 0-0 Treaty United Treaty United İR1
04.08.2023 Treaty United Treaty United 2-3 HT 2-1 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
13.05.2023 Longford Town Longford Town 0-3 HT 0-1 Treaty United Treaty United İR1
07.04.2023 Treaty United Treaty United 3-2 HT 1-1 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
24.09.2022 Longford Town Longford Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Treaty United Treaty United İR1
08.07.2022 Treaty United Treaty United 3-0 HT 0-0 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Longford Town
2-1
AWAY Treaty United
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Longford Town vs Treaty United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Longford Town squeezed past Treaty United 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Treaty United at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Longford Town had 48% of the ball to Treaty United's 52%, shots finished 9-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Treaty United led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Longford Town and 2.50 for Treaty United.

What was the final score of Longford Town vs Treaty United?

Longford Town 2-1 Treaty United in the Ireland - 1st Division on 13/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Longford Town vs Treaty United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Treaty United win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Longford Town 34%, draw 25%, Treaty United 41%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Treaty United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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