KTP Kotka 1-0 Jaro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Ykkönen, 13 May 2024

📅13/05/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
25%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.1
Over 2.5
53%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.12
2-3 Goals
43%
1.85
4-5 Goals
23%
3.06
6+ Goals
9%
9.69
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
6%
X/X
17%
2/1
10%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-1.8pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.6pp
25%
Away Win
26%
-1.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.6pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME KTP Kotka EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Jaro EU Bookmakers 30%
+15% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
2.47/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.95
+42% / +75% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / -16%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
407 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME KTP Kotka
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Jaro
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
18.09.2022 Jaro Jaro 4-2 HT 2-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FINY
26.08.2022 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 2-1 HT 0-0 Jaro Jaro FİN2
18.06.2022 Jaro Jaro 2-2 HT 1-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN2
08.11.2020 Jaro Jaro 2-3 HT 0-2 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN2
30.08.2020 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 1-1 HT 1-0 Jaro Jaro FİN2
09.09.2019 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 3-1 HT 0-1 Jaro Jaro FİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME KTP Kotka
1-0
AWAY Jaro
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH KTP Kotka vs Jaro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

KTP Kotka squeezed past Jaro 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had KTP Kotka as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, KTP Kotka had 49% of the ball to Jaro's 51%, shots finished 10-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, KTP Kotka had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for KTP Kotka and 1.83 for Jaro.

What was the final score of KTP Kotka vs Jaro?

KTP Kotka 1-0 Jaro in the Finland - Ykkönen on 13/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for KTP Kotka vs Jaro?

Before kick-off our model rated a KTP Kotka win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split KTP Kotka 47%, draw 28%, Jaro 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (KTP Kotka) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (KTP Kotka) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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