UMF Selfoss 1-4 Thor Akureyri — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iceland - VISA Bikar Cup, 13 May 2025

📅13/05/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.87
Draw
17%
3.94
Away
54%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
Over 2.5
58%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.46
No
45%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
5%
1/X
3%
X/1
16%
X/2
22%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
28%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
22%
+6.4pp
17%
Draw
22%
-5.5pp
54%
Away Win
55%
-0.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
64%
-9.4pp
45%
BTTS No
36%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UMF Selfoss EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Thor Akureyri EU Bookmakers 60%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
242 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 424 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UMF Selfoss
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Thor Akureyri
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
20.08.2023 UMF Selfoss UMF Selfoss 2-2 HT 0-1 Thor Akureyri Thor Akureyri İZL1
16.06.2023 Thor Akureyri Thor Akureyri 2-1 HT 1-0 UMF Selfoss UMF Selfoss İZL1
10.08.2022 UMF Selfoss UMF Selfoss 2-1 HT 1-1 Thor Akureyri Thor Akureyri İZL1
03.06.2022 Thor Akureyri Thor Akureyri 0-2 HT 0-1 UMF Selfoss UMF Selfoss İZL1
11.09.2021 Thor Akureyri Thor Akureyri 1-2 HT 1-2 UMF Selfoss UMF Selfoss İZL1
05.07.2021 UMF Selfoss UMF Selfoss 1-1 HT 0-1 Thor Akureyri Thor Akureyri İZL1
POST-MATCH UMF Selfoss vs Thor Akureyri
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Thor Akureyri swept aside UMF Selfoss 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Thor Akureyri as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, UMF Selfoss had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for UMF Selfoss and 1.17 for Thor Akureyri.

What was the final score of UMF Selfoss vs Thor Akureyri?

UMF Selfoss 1-4 Thor Akureyri in the Iceland - VISA Bikar Cup on 13/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UMF Selfoss vs Thor Akureyri?

Before kick-off our model rated an Thor Akureyri win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split UMF Selfoss 29%, draw 17%, Thor Akureyri 54%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Thor Akureyri), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Thor Akureyri) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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