Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon Kyiv Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Shakhtar Donetsk v Obolon Kyiv — Team-Based Signals
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon Kyiv Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
0-6
HT 0-1
Shakhtar Donetsk
UKR
0-2
HT 0-1
Shakhtar Donetsk
UKR
4-0
HT 1-0
Obolon Kyiv
UKR
0-3
HT 0-2
Shakhtar Donetsk
UKR
1-0
HT 0-0
Obolon Kyiv
UKR
Shakhtar Donetsk saw off Obolon Kyiv 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Shakhtar Donetsk as the likeliest winner at 79%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.
For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Shakhtar Donetsk had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 3.20 goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.00 for Obolon Kyiv.
What was the final score of Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon Kyiv?
Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 Obolon Kyiv in the Ukraine - Premier League on 13/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon Kyiv?
Before kick-off our model rated a Shakhtar Donetsk win the most likely single outcome at about 79%, with the full match-result split Shakhtar Donetsk 79%, draw 14%, Obolon Kyiv 6%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shakhtar Donetsk), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.