Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 Obolon Kyiv — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ukraine - Premier League, 13 May 2026

📅13/05/2026 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
80%
1.25
Draw
14%
5.28
Away
6%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
2.23
Over
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1
25%
2-3
40%
4-5
22%
6+
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1/2
2%
1/X
3%
X/1
33%
X/2
2%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
3%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Shakhtar Donetsk win — 80%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
79%
Home Win
76%
+3.8pp
14%
Draw
16%
-1.5pp
6%
Away Win
8%
-2.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.2pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shakhtar Donetsk EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Obolon Kyiv EU Bookmakers 11%
-6% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +1%
2.52/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.48/2.07
+31% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -6%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
445 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shakhtar Donetsk
5W-0D-0L
AWAY Obolon Kyiv
3.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
21 Total Shots 4
16 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
22.11.2025 Obolon Kyiv Obolon Kyiv 0-6 HT 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk UKR
29.03.2025 Obolon Kyiv Obolon Kyiv 0-2 HT 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk UKR
23.09.2024 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 4-0 HT 1-0 Obolon Kyiv Obolon Kyiv UKR
30.03.2024 Obolon Kyiv Obolon Kyiv 0-3 HT 0-2 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk UKR
16.09.2023 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 HT 0-0 Obolon Kyiv Obolon Kyiv UKR
POST-MATCH Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon Kyiv
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shakhtar Donetsk saw off Obolon Kyiv 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Shakhtar Donetsk as the likeliest winner at 79%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Shakhtar Donetsk had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 3.20 goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.00 for Obolon Kyiv.

What was the final score of Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon Kyiv?

Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 Obolon Kyiv in the Ukraine - Premier League on 13/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon Kyiv?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shakhtar Donetsk win the most likely single outcome at about 79%, with the full match-result split Shakhtar Donetsk 79%, draw 14%, Obolon Kyiv 6%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shakhtar Donetsk), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Shakhtar Donetsk) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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