Al Gharafa 1-0 Shabab Al Ahli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 13 Aug 2024

📅13/08/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.32
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
39%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.15
Over 2.5
53%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
23%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
27%
+7.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
39%
Away Win
47%
-8.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
43%
+3.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
57%
-3.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.1pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Gharafa EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Shabab Al Ahli EU Bookmakers 51%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
1.34/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.23
-46% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / +21%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
286 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 81%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
16.6 Crosses 16.8
3.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Gharafa
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Shabab Al Ahli
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 4.50
1.79 xG 2.31
36% Ball Possession 64%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 2
268 Passes 566
81% Pass Accuracy 90%
16 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.04.2022 Shabab Al Ahli Shabab Al Ahli 8-2 HT 3-1 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa AŞMP
14.04.2022 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 1-1 HT 1-0 Shabab Al Ahli Shabab Al Ahli AŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Gharafa
1-0
AWAY Shabab Al Ahli
0.48 xG 0.81
29% Ball Possession 71%
9 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
149 Passes 504
62% Pass Accuracy 84%
9 Box Touches 31
13 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Al Gharafa vs Shabab Al Ahli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Gharafa edged past Shabab Al Ahli 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 27% / 39% — and on the day Al Gharafa made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Al Gharafa had 29% of the ball to Shabab Al Ahli's 71%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 0.48 to 0.81.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Shabab Al Ahli led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Al Gharafa and 4.50 for Shabab Al Ahli.

What was the final score of Al Gharafa vs Shabab Al Ahli?

Al Gharafa 1-0 Shabab Al Ahli in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 13/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Gharafa vs Shabab Al Ahli?

Before kick-off our model rated an Shabab Al Ahli win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Al Gharafa 34%, draw 27%, Shabab Al Ahli 39%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Shabab Al Ahli), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Shabab Al Ahli) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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