Derby County U21 2-3 AFC Bournemouth U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League Cup, 13 Sep 2024

📅13/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.64
Draw
29%
4.19
Away
29%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.96
Over 2.5
60%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.39
No
38%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
18%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
17%
X/1
10%
X/2
14%
X/X
4%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
57%
-14.5pp
29%
Draw
21%
+8.5pp
29%
Away Win
23%
+6.0pp
40%
Under 2.5
30%
+10.0pp
60%
Over 2.5
70%
-10.0pp
62%
BTTS Yes
68%
-5.8pp
38%
BTTS No
32%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County U21 EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY AFC Bournemouth U21 EU Bookmakers 26%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
441 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Derby County U21 vs AFC Bournemouth U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Bournemouth U21 nicked a narrow win over Derby County U21 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Derby County U21 at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (62%), and both reads landed as well.

What was the final score of Derby County U21 vs AFC Bournemouth U21?

Derby County U21 2-3 AFC Bournemouth U21 in the England - Premier League Cup on 13/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County U21 vs AFC Bournemouth U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Derby County U21 42%, draw 29%, AFC Bournemouth U21 29%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Derby County U21) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Derby County U21) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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