Saint-Etienne 1-0 Lille — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 13 Sep 2024

Saint-Etienne
1-0 HT 1-0
Lille
📅13/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Saint-Etienne vs Lille Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
4.13
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
42%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.86
Over 2.5
42%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.82
No
56%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.28
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.58
6+ Goals
8%
14.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 32% vs market 24.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
7.47
1/2
7%
24.45
1/X
6%
15.15
X/1
11%
9.52
X/2
13%
4.01
X/X
15%
4.82
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.23
2/X
9%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
21%
+6.5pp
30%
Draw
25%
+4.6pp
43%
Away Win
54%
-11.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
50%
+7.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
50%
-7.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.2pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Saint-Etienne v Lille — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Saint-Etienne EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Lille EU Bookmakers 57%
-10% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -1%
0.98/1.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.17
-13% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +3%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
292 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 417 · 82%
16.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.3
17.1 Crosses 17.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1

Saint-Etienne vs Lille Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Saint-Etienne
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Lille
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.61 xG 1.36
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
332 Passes 395
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.03.2022 Lille Lille 0-0 HT 0-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
21.08.2021 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 1-1 HT 0-1 Lille Lille FR1
16.05.2021 Lille Lille 0-0 HT 0-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
29.11.2020 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 1-1 HT 1-0 Lille Lille FR1
28.08.2019 Lille Lille 3-0 HT 1-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
10.03.2019 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 0-1 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1

Saint-Etienne 1-0 Lille — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Saint-Etienne
1-0
AWAY Lille
1.25 xG 1.24
29% Ball Possession 71%
10 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 7
206 Passes 608
73% Pass Accuracy 88%
10 Box Touches 35
8 Crosses 29
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Saint-Etienne vs Lille
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Saint-Etienne squeezed past Lille 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Lille at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Saint-Etienne had 29% of the ball to Lille's 71%, shots finished 10-17, expected goals 1.25 to 1.24.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lille led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Saint-Etienne and 1.00 for Lille.

What was the final score of Saint-Etienne vs Lille?

Saint-Etienne 1-0 Lille in the France - Ligue 1 on 13/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Saint-Etienne vs Lille?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Saint-Etienne 28%, draw 30%, Lille 43%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Lille) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lille) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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