13/09/2024
·
19:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
0-1
Resovia Rzeszow vs Kalisz Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.45
— our 31% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 52% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH
BTTS Yes
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
50%
25%
Draw
25%
34%
Away Win
25%
52%
Under 2.5
48%
48%
Over 2.5
52%
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
49%
BTTS No
46%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Resovia Rzeszow v Kalisz — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Resovia Rzeszow
EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY
Kalisz
EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% /
-2%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+11% /
+17%
1.68/1.12
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
1.37/1.07
+5%
/
-2%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+18%
/
+44%
50%
Ball Possession
50%
13
Total Shots
12
6
Shots on Target
4
5
Corners
6
358 · 79%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
315 · 77%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
2.7
POST-MATCH
Resovia Rzeszow vs Kalisz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Resovia Rzeszow saw off Kalisz 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Resovia Rzeszow as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
What was the final score of Resovia Rzeszow vs Kalisz?
Resovia Rzeszow 2-0 Kalisz in the Poland - 2nd Division on 13/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Resovia Rzeszow vs Kalisz?
Before kick-off our model rated a Resovia Rzeszow win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Resovia Rzeszow 41%, draw 25%, Kalisz 34%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Resovia Rzeszow), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Resovia Rzeszow)
✓ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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