Torreense 3-2 Portimonense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 13 Sep 2024

📅13/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
42%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.75
Over 2.5
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.03
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
3.87
6+ Goals
12%
17.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 30% vs market 27.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
34%
-5.5pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.6pp
42%
Away Win
37%
+4.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
53%
+2.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
47%
-2.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.2pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Torreense EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Portimonense EU Bookmakers 40%
-12% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +13%
1.34/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.01
-19% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
287 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.3 Crosses 12.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Torreense
3-2
AWAY Portimonense
3.04 xG 0.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
23 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 3
255 Passes 213
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Torreense vs Portimonense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Torreense squeezed past Portimonense 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Portimonense at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Torreense had 52% of the ball to Portimonense's 48%, shots finished 23-9, expected goals 3.04 to 0.50 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Torreense's control.

What was the final score of Torreense vs Portimonense?

Torreense 3-2 Portimonense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 13/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Torreense vs Portimonense?

Before kick-off our model rated an Portimonense win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Torreense 29%, draw 29%, Portimonense 42%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Portimonense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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