Arsenal Tula 1-2 Spartak Kostroma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 13 Sep 2025

📅13/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
21%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
Over 2.5
43%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.44
No
53%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
54%
-0.2pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.6pp
21%
Away Win
18%
+2.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
37%
+9.6pp
53%
BTTS No
63%
-9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal Tula EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Spartak Kostroma EU Bookmakers 21%
+6% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +67% / +67%
1.36/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/0.75
-8% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +147% / +99%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
331 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.7
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal Tula
1-2
AWAY Spartak Kostroma
65% Ball Possession 35%
8 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 0
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spartak Kostroma nicked a narrow win over Arsenal Tula 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Arsenal Tula at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Arsenal Tula had 65% of the ball to Spartak Kostroma's 35%, shots finished 8-8.

What was the final score of Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma?

Arsenal Tula 1-2 Spartak Kostroma in the Russia - FNL on 13/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal Tula win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Arsenal Tula 53%, draw 26%, Spartak Kostroma 21%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal Tula) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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