Melbourne Victory (K) 1-1 Wellington Phoenix (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - W-League, 13 Dec 2024

Melbourne Victory (K)
1-1 HT 0-0
Wellington Phoenix (K)
📅13/12/2024 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Australia - W-League – 2024/2025

Melbourne Victory (K) vs Wellington Phoenix (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.45
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
27%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.51
Over 2.5
53%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
48%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
64%
-14.3pp
23%
Draw
20%
+3.1pp
27%
Away Win
16%
+11.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
36%
+10.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
64%
-10.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.9pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Melbourne Victory (K) v Wellington Phoenix (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne Victory (K) EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Wellington Phoenix (K) EU Bookmakers 19%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
2.09/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.81
+46% / -45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / -28%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
347 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 72%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.3
23.1 Crosses 18.7
1.0 Yellow Cards 0.9

Melbourne Victory (K) vs Wellington Phoenix (K) Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne Victory (K)
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Wellington Phoenix (K)
5.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
3.02 xG 0.89
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 5
318 Passes 310
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
33 Box Touches 27
28 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
03.03.2024 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) 5-3 HT 4-0 Wellington Phoenix (K) Wellington Phoenix (K) AVUSTW

Melbourne Victory (K) 1-1 Wellington Phoenix (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne Victory (K)
1-1
AWAY Wellington Phoenix (K)
2.10 xG 2.35
67% Ball Possession 33%
16 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 1
431 Passes 176
82% Pass Accuracy 65%
37 Box Touches 19
30 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Melbourne Victory (K) vs Wellington Phoenix (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne Victory (K) and Wellington Phoenix (K) shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Melbourne Victory (K) at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Melbourne Victory (K) had 67% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix (K)'s 33%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 2.10 to 2.35.

What was the final score of Melbourne Victory (K) vs Wellington Phoenix (K)?

Melbourne Victory (K) 1-1 Wellington Phoenix (K) in the Australia - W-League on 13/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne Victory (K) vs Wellington Phoenix (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne Victory (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Victory (K) 50%, draw 23%, Wellington Phoenix (K) 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Melbourne Victory (K)), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Melbourne Victory (K)) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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