Toulouse 2-1 Saint-Etienne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 13 Dec 2024

Toulouse
2-1 HT 0-0
Saint-Etienne
📅13/12/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Toulouse vs Saint-Etienne Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.43
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
19%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.03
Over 2.5
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.65
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
25%
3.13
6+ Goals
12%
10.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.78
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
18.6
X/1
18%
3.57
X/2
5%
13.9
X/X
12%
6.18
2/1
7%
23.4
2/2
9%
11.3
2/X
6%
19.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
65%
-7.7pp
23%
Draw
20%
+2.5pp
19%
Away Win
14%
+5.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.7pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Toulouse v Saint-Etienne — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toulouse EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Saint-Etienne EU Bookmakers 17%
-9% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -11%
1.90/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/2.21
-24% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -38%
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
491 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 76%
29.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
23.7 Crosses 14.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3

Toulouse vs Saint-Etienne Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toulouse
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Saint-Etienne
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.45 xG 1.72
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
276 Passes 312
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.09.2019 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 2-2 HT 1-2 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
28.04.2019 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 2-0 HT 2-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
25.09.2018 Toulouse Toulouse 2-3 HT 0-1 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
14.01.2018 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 2-0 HT 1-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
29.10.2017 Toulouse Toulouse 0-0 HT 0-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
29.01.2017 Toulouse Toulouse 0-3 HT 0-1 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1

Toulouse 2-1 Saint-Etienne — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toulouse
2-1
AWAY Saint-Etienne
1.41 xG 0.52
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 3
4 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 3
344 Passes 569
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
21 Box Touches 4
17 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Toulouse vs Saint-Etienne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toulouse squeezed past Saint-Etienne 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Toulouse as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Toulouse had 39% of the ball to Saint-Etienne's 61%, shots finished 11-3, expected goals 1.41 to 0.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Saint-Etienne led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Toulouse and 2.00 for Saint-Etienne.

What was the final score of Toulouse vs Saint-Etienne?

Toulouse 2-1 Saint-Etienne in the France - Ligue 1 on 13/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toulouse vs Saint-Etienne?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toulouse win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Toulouse 58%, draw 23%, Saint-Etienne 19%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toulouse), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Toulouse) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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