Cartagena 4-1 Villarreal II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 14 Jan 2024

Cartagena
4-1 HT 0-1
Villarreal II
📅14/01/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Cartagena vs Villarreal II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.6
Over 2.5
39%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.95
No
58%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.51
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
17%
4.67
6+ Goals
8%
26.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.51 — our 34% vs market 33.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.35
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
11%
13.75
X/1
9%
4.72
X/2
13%
6.01
X/X
13%
3.88
2/1
10%
31.0
2/2
11%
4.71
2/X
7%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
41%
-2.8pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.8pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.1pp
61%
Under 2.5
59%
+2.6pp
39%
Over 2.5
41%
-2.6pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.0pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cartagena v Villarreal II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cartagena EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Villarreal II EU Bookmakers 34%
-3% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -3%
1.36/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.33
+10% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +13%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
316 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 79%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
23.1 Crosses 12.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.7

Cartagena vs Villarreal II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cartagena
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Villarreal II
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.45 xG 2.48
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
325 Passes 394
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 29
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.09.2023 Villarreal II Villarreal II 1-2 HT 1-0 Cartagena Cartagena İS2
19.03.2023 Villarreal II Villarreal II 5-2 HT 1-2 Cartagena Cartagena İS2
07.12.2022 Cartagena Cartagena 0-1 HT 0-0 Villarreal II Villarreal II İS2
27.05.2012 Cartagena Cartagena 6-2 HT 3-1 Villarreal II Villarreal II İS2
14.01.2012 Villarreal II Villarreal II 0-0 HT 0-0 Cartagena Cartagena İS2
26.03.2011 Cartagena Cartagena 2-0 HT 1-0 Villarreal II Villarreal II İS2

Cartagena 4-1 Villarreal II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cartagena
4-1
AWAY Villarreal II
2.84 xG 1.87
45% Ball Possession 55%
19 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 6
269 Passes 340
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cartagena vs Villarreal II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cartagena swept aside Villarreal II 4-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 30% / 32%) promised a tight game; Cartagena found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cartagena had 45% of the ball to Villarreal II's 55%, shots finished 19-13, expected goals 2.84 to 1.87.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cartagena had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Cartagena and 1.50 for Villarreal II.

What was the final score of Cartagena vs Villarreal II?

Cartagena 4-1 Villarreal II in the Spain - 2nd Division on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cartagena vs Villarreal II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cartagena win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Cartagena 38%, draw 30%, Villarreal II 32%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cartagena) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cartagena) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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