Real Madrid 4-1 Barcelona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Super Cup, 14 Jan 2024

Real Madrid
4-1 HT 3-1
Barcelona
📅14/01/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Spain - Super Cup – 2023/2024

Real Madrid vs Barcelona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
37%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.21
Over 2.5
55%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.53
No
42%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.59
2-3 Goals
38%
1.9
4-5 Goals
30%
2.9
6+ Goals
10%
8.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.76
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
30.0
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
12%
4.89
X/2
10%
6.95
X/X
11%
5.46
2/1
8%
22.15
2/2
17%
4.5
2/X
7%
13.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 30.0 — our 10% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
46%
-7.5pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.3pp
37%
Away Win
30%
+7.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.6pp
58%
BTTS Yes
61%
-3.4pp
42%
BTTS No
39%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Real Madrid v Barcelona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Barcelona EU Bookmakers 33%
+24% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -38% / -38%
3.84/2.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.33/2.00
+150% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -87% / +88%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
359 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 400 · 80%
50.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
27.9 Crosses 11.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0

Real Madrid vs Barcelona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Barcelona
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.17 xG 1.46
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
457 Passes 444
87% Pass Accuracy 86%
27 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
28.10.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 1-2 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
30.07.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 3-0 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid HAZ
05.04.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 0-4 HT 0-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İSPK
19.03.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 2-1 HT 1-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
02.03.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 0-1 HT 0-1 Barcelona Barcelona İSPK
15.01.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-3 HT 0-2 Barcelona Barcelona İSSK

Real Madrid 4-1 Barcelona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid
4-1
AWAY Barcelona
3.58 xG 1.14
43% Ball Possession 57%
18 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 4
420 Passes 558
90% Pass Accuracy 91%
37 Box Touches 29
7 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Real Madrid vs Barcelona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid ran out comfortable winners over Barcelona 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 25% / 37%) promised a tight game; Real Madrid found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Real Madrid had 43% of the ball to Barcelona's 57%, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 3.58 to 1.14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Real Madrid and 1.67 for Barcelona.

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Barcelona?

Real Madrid 4-1 Barcelona in the Spain - Super Cup on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid vs Barcelona?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 38%, draw 25%, Barcelona 37%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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