14/01/2024
·
16:44
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
2-1
Caravaggio vs Club Milano Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
Over
53%
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
56%
No
44%
Total Goals
0-1
25%
2-3
43%
4-5
21%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
5%
X/X
9%
2/1
13%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 56% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
53%
Home Win
57%
24%
Draw
26%
24%
Away Win
18%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Caravaggio v Club Milano — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Caravaggio
The Market 61%
Head to Head
AWAY
Club Milano
The Market 21%
-13% /
-13%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
-13%
/
-10%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
57%
Ball Possession
43%
14
Total Shots
10
6
Shots on Target
4
6
Corners
4
418 · 83%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
287 · 76%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Caravaggio vs Club Milano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Caravaggio got the better of Club Milano 2-0.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Caravaggio as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Caravaggio vs Club Milano?
Caravaggio 2-0 Club Milano in the Italy - Serie D on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Caravaggio vs Club Milano?
Before kick-off our model rated a Caravaggio win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Caravaggio 53%, draw 24%, Club Milano 24%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Caravaggio) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Caravaggio)
✗ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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İTD
More Italy - Serie D
14 Jan 2024