14/01/2024
·
21:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
0-1
Heredia vs Aurora Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
52%
Over
48%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
No Pick
53%
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2-3
39%
4-5
24%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 53% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH
Home Win
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
47%
Home Win
63%
25%
Draw
21%
28%
Away Win
16%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Heredia v Aurora — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Heredia
The Market 67%
Head to Head
AWAY
Aurora
The Market 20%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
57%
Ball Possession
43%
12
Total Shots
10
5
Shots on Target
4
5
Corners
4
377 · 80%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
275 · 75%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Heredia vs Aurora
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Heredia and Aurora couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.
Our pre-match lean was Heredia at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
What was the final score of Heredia vs Aurora?
Heredia 1-1 Aurora in the Guatemela - Premier League Apertura on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Heredia vs Aurora?
Before kick-off our model rated a Heredia win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Heredia 47%, draw 25%, Aurora 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Heredia), BTTS No went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Heredia)
✓ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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GUAP
More Guatemela - Premier League Apertura
14 Jan 2024