Caldas 1-0 Sporting CP II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 14 Jan 2024

📅14/01/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.25
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
31%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.8
Over 2.5
42%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
41%
+3.6pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.0pp
31%
Away Win
31%
-0.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.6pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caldas EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting CP II EU Bookmakers 34%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
0.52/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/0.86
-60% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +54%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
306 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caldas
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Sporting CP II
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.09.2023 Sporting CP II Sporting CP II 1-3 HT 0-1 Caldas Caldas POR3
11.03.2023 Sporting CP II Sporting CP II 3-2 HT 1-1 Caldas Caldas POR3
03.12.2022 Caldas Caldas 0-2 HT 0-1 Sporting CP II Sporting CP II POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caldas
1-0
AWAY Sporting CP II
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 3
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Caldas vs Sporting CP II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caldas edged past Sporting CP II 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Caldas as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Caldas had 46% of the ball to Sporting CP II's 54%, shots finished 7-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Sporting CP II led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Caldas and 2.00 for Sporting CP II.

What was the final score of Caldas vs Sporting CP II?

Caldas 1-0 Sporting CP II in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caldas vs Sporting CP II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Caldas 45%, draw 25%, Sporting CP II 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Caldas), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Caldas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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