North Geelong Warriors 1-0 Melbourne Knights — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AVPL1, 14 Feb 2026

North Geelong Warriors
1-0
Melbourne Knights
📅14/02/2026 · 🕒07:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
AVPL1 – 2026

North Geelong Warriors vs Melbourne Knights Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
3.75
Draw
27%
4.08
Away
54%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
Over 2.5
50%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.5
No
53%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
6%
X/2
17%
X/X
12%
2/1
3%
2/2
33%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
23%
-4.1pp
27%
Draw
21%
+5.6pp
54%
Away Win
55%
-1.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
62%
-15.9pp
53%
BTTS No
38%
+15.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

North Geelong Warriors v Melbourne Knights — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME North Geelong Warriors EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne Knights EU Bookmakers 60%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
284 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 394 · 83%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

North Geelong Warriors vs Melbourne Knights Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME North Geelong Warriors
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Melbourne Knights
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.07.2023 North Geelong Warriors North Geelong Warriors 0-3 HT 0-3 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights AVNPL
10.04.2023 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights 3-2 HT 2-0 North Geelong Warriors North Geelong Warriors AVNPL
07.03.2015 North Geelong Warriors North Geelong Warriors 0-1 HT 0-0 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights AVNPL
POST-MATCH North Geelong Warriors vs Melbourne Knights
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

North Geelong Warriors edged past Melbourne Knights 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Melbourne Knights at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Melbourne Knights led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for North Geelong Warriors and 2.33 for Melbourne Knights.

What was the final score of North Geelong Warriors vs Melbourne Knights?

North Geelong Warriors 1-0 Melbourne Knights in the AVPL1 on 14/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for North Geelong Warriors vs Melbourne Knights?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne Knights win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split North Geelong Warriors 19%, draw 27%, Melbourne Knights 54%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Melbourne Knights) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Melbourne Knights) ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AVPL1 More AVPL1
14 Feb 2026
07:15 Manningham United Blues vs Bulleen Lions Analysis →
11:00 Langwarrin vs North Sunshine Eagles Analysis →