El Paso Locomotive 1-1 Monterey Bay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 14 Mar 2024

📅14/03/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
30%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.15
Over 2.5
52%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.21
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals
24%
3.02
6+ Goals
10%
9.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.21 — our 27% vs market 18.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
6%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-4.4pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.7pp
31%
Away Win
24%
+6.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
43%
+5.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
57%
-5.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.1pp
51%
BTTS No
43%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Paso Locomotive EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 27%
+6% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -4%
1.69/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.62
-14% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -16%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
383 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 76%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.8
18.7 Crosses 17.5
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Paso Locomotive
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Monterey Bay
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
1.85 xG 0.58
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
489 Passes 286
88% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.09.2023 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 1-2 HT 0-1 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
09.07.2023 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 0-0 HT 0-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
07.08.2022 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 1-0 HT 0-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
10.04.2022 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 5-0 HT 2-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Paso Locomotive
1-1
AWAY Monterey Bay
0.65 xG 1.19
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 9
338 Passes 406
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Box Touches 23
5 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH El Paso Locomotive vs Monterey Bay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Paso Locomotive and Monterey Bay shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was El Paso Locomotive at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, El Paso Locomotive had 45% of the ball to Monterey Bay's 55%, shots finished 7-19, expected goals 0.65 to 1.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Monterey Bay led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for El Paso Locomotive and 0.75 for Monterey Bay.

What was the final score of El Paso Locomotive vs Monterey Bay?

El Paso Locomotive 1-1 Monterey Bay in the USL Championship on 14/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Paso Locomotive vs Monterey Bay?

Before kick-off our model rated a El Paso Locomotive win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split El Paso Locomotive 49%, draw 21%, Monterey Bay 31%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (El Paso Locomotive) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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