Varnsdorf 4-1 Zbrojovka Brno — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Czech Republic - FNL, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.84
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
42%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.03
Over 2.5
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
21%
X/2
17%
X/X
8%
2/1
4%
2/2
21%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
32%
+4.7pp
22%
Draw
26%
-4.7pp
42%
Away Win
42%
-0.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.3pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Varnsdorf EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Zbrojovka Brno EU Bookmakers 46%
-3% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -11%
1.14/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.46
-20% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -11%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
322 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Varnsdorf
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Zbrojovka Brno
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
02.09.2023 Zbrojovka Brno Zbrojovka Brno 1-0 HT 0-0 Varnsdorf Varnsdorf ÇEK2
06.04.2022 Varnsdorf Varnsdorf 0-2 HT 0-2 Zbrojovka Brno Zbrojovka Brno ÇEK2
06.10.2021 Varnsdorf Varnsdorf 4-2 HT 1-1 Zbrojovka Brno Zbrojovka Brno ÇEKK
29.08.2021 Zbrojovka Brno Zbrojovka Brno 2-2 HT 1-0 Varnsdorf Varnsdorf ÇEK2
24.06.2020 Varnsdorf Varnsdorf 0-1 HT 0-0 Zbrojovka Brno Zbrojovka Brno ÇEK2
18.10.2019 Zbrojovka Brno Zbrojovka Brno 4-1 HT 3-0 Varnsdorf Varnsdorf ÇEK2
POST-MATCH Varnsdorf vs Zbrojovka Brno
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Varnsdorf ran out comfortable winners over Zbrojovka Brno 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Zbrojovka Brno at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zbrojovka Brno led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Varnsdorf and 2.00 for Zbrojovka Brno.

What was the final score of Varnsdorf vs Zbrojovka Brno?

Varnsdorf 4-1 Zbrojovka Brno in the Czech Republic - FNL on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Varnsdorf vs Zbrojovka Brno?

Before kick-off our model rated an Zbrojovka Brno win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Varnsdorf 36%, draw 22%, Zbrojovka Brno 42%. The final score 4-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Zbrojovka Brno) ✗ Under 2.5
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