AC Milan (K) 3-2 Napoli (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italya - Women's Serie A, 14 Apr 2024

AC Milan (K)
3-2 HT 1-0
Napoli (K)
📅14/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Italya - Women's Serie A – 2023/2024

AC Milan (K) vs Napoli (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.28
Draw
35%
5.28
Away
12%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.43
Over 2.5
51%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
31%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
10%
X/2
3%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
3%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
74%
-20.6pp
35%
Draw
16%
+19.3pp
12%
Away Win
11%
+1.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
38%
+11.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
62%
-11.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.5pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AC Milan (K) v Napoli (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AC Milan (K) EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Napoli (K) EU Bookmakers 14%
-39% / -39% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
2.13/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.57/3.32
-26% / -45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -23%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
438 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 78%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.0
16.0 Crosses 6.5
1.0 Yellow Cards 0.5

AC Milan (K) 3-2 Napoli (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AC Milan (K)
3-2
AWAY Napoli (K)
0.94 xG 0.92
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 4
330 Passes 182
81% Pass Accuracy 70%
23 Box Touches 20
26 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH AC Milan (K) vs Napoli (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AC Milan (K) edged past Napoli (K) 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had AC Milan (K) as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, AC Milan (K) had 61% of the ball to Napoli (K)'s 39%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 0.94 to 0.92.

What was the final score of AC Milan (K) vs Napoli (K)?

AC Milan (K) 3-2 Napoli (K) in the Italya - Women's Serie A on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AC Milan (K) vs Napoli (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a AC Milan (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split AC Milan (K) 53%, draw 35%, Napoli (K) 12%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AC Milan (K)), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AC Milan (K)) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →