PFC Beroe 2-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.94
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
41%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.6
Over 2.5
52%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.96
No
49%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
19%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
31%
+4.8pp
23%
Draw
28%
-4.8pp
41%
Away Win
41%
+0.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
59%
-10.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
41%
+10.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.6pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PFC Beroe EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 45%
+28% / +28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.55/0.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.87/2.69
+46% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +110% / -67%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
282 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PFC Beroe
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
20.10.2023 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-2 HT 0-2 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe BUL1
13.03.2023 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-0 HT 0-0 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe BUL1
23.03.2019 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3-3 HT 1-3 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PFC Beroe
2-2
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH PFC Beroe vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PFC Beroe and Lokomotiv Plovdiv shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, PFC Beroe had 41% of the ball to Lokomotiv Plovdiv's 59%, shots finished 13-8.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, PFC Beroe had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for PFC Beroe and 1.33 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.

What was the final score of PFC Beroe vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

PFC Beroe 2-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PFC Beroe vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lokomotiv Plovdiv win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split PFC Beroe 35%, draw 23%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 41%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) ✓ Over 2.5
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